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Rotisserie By The Numbers: Lefty Left Out, Garrard In (12/1/05 5:09 PM EST)
By Craig Rondinone SportsTicker Contributing Writer
BRISTOL, Connecticut (Ticker) - Just when Jacksonville quarterback Byron Leftwich finally was becoming a consistent fantasy force, the guy goes and breaks his ankle. The nerve!
Fantasy owners cannot cry over spilt fantasy value now. There is no time - and there is no crying in fantasy football. Most leagues are only a week or two away from their league playoffs, so Leftwich owners need to come up with a contingency plan faster than they can shout, "Do the river dance, Chad Johnson!"
The only starting quarterback probably available on your league's waiver wire is the man taking over for Leftwich in Jacksonville, David Garrard. You might as well pick him up if you can. Quarterbacks in fantasy football are like pitchers in fantasy baseball - and also like candy corn. You can never have enough.
But what will Garrard's fantasy value be for the remainder of the season? And what about some of the other Jaguars offensive players? How will their fantasy values be affected by Leftwich's absence?
GARRARD: I am a lover, not a fighter. And Garrard is a scrambler, not a thrower. He runs around like a chicken with its head cut off, and that is great for his rushing yards (61 last week against Arizona) but does nothing for his passing yards (115 against the Cardinals).
Just look no further than his career passing stats. He has a completion percentage of 52.6 and a lifetime quarterback rating of 67.9. Sounds like the stats of a backup to me.
Fantasy Outlook: Garrard is the starter for the rest of the regular season. Is he better than Charlie Batch? Yes. Is he better than Mike McMahon? No. You definitely want him more in leagues where rushing yards for quarterbacks are more important and valuable. Jacksonville has the easiest schedule in football the rest of the way, but Garrard has a better chance of a 100-yard rushing day than a 300-yard passing day. Call him a poor man's Michael Vick.
JIMMY SMITH: The greatest receiver in Jacksonville's short history has fallen on hard times this season. He has been getting double-teamed by Father Time and a strained hamstring, a tag team as fearsome as the Road Warriors were back in the 80s and 90s.
Smith has not reached the end zone in his last seven games, and that was with Leftwich throwing him the ball. You would think things would get bleaker for Smith with Garrard tossing him balls, but Smith did have seven receptions for 70 yards last week when Garrard played.
Fantasy Outlook: Smith is the one wideout with which Garrard is very familiar and undoubtedly would be the guy Garrard is going to look for the most on passing plays because he is confident and comfortable with Smith. That might suggest that Smith could do a tad better with Garrard because Leftwich's spreading the ball around caused Smith's numbers to drop.
Look for Smith to finally find the end zone in the next two weeks.
MATT JONES: You have to feel badly for Jones and his fantasy owners. The first-rounder was just coming into his own, scoring touchdowns in four out of five games before the Arizona travesty last week.
Leftwich's injury might signal Jones' fantasy demise. While Smith caught seven balls with Garrard at the helm against Arizona, Jones had one catch for seven yards. That is an ominous sign of things to come.
Fantasy Outlook: Jacksonville obviously is going to run the ball more now with Garrard running the show. It would be the smart thing to do, especially since Garrard cannot throw. And when the Jags throw, Garrard is going to look for Smith first.
Jones is the deep threat on the team, but Garrard has averaged less than 10 yards per completion for his career, so he would prefer to throw short passes to a chain-mover like Smith. Look for Jones' stats to take a Brian Dawkins-like hit.
FRED TAYLOR AND GREG JONES: The Jaguars' starting tailback this week could be Jones, who has been solid when called upon, or Taylor, who supposedly has returned to practice. Whoever is slated as the starter by the weekend is going to be a lucky man because Jacksonville will be forced to become more of a run-orientated offense because of Leftwich's departure.
Fantasy Outlook: If Taylor is healthy, he will be the starter. Jacksonville never has asked Taylor to split carries during his career, so unless Taylor is not 100 percent, Jones will not get many carries unless it is at the goal line. The Jaguars should average about 40-50 more yards on the ground every game because of the Leftwich-Garrard situation.
Question of the Week: Tom Delaney from Milwaukee, Wisconsin is a cheesehead with two cheesy quarterbacks. Tom begs, "Craig, please help me out. I am forced to choose between Baltimore's bad quarterback, Kyle Boller, and Houston's sorry signal caller, David Carr, this week. Which QB would you start and why?"
Answer: Tom, I pity you, my friend. And I pity the NFL, because these two quarterbacks actually face each other this week because Baltimore hosts Houston. It has the makings of one of the sloppiest contests in recent history. I do not like Boller or Carr in most situations, but if I had to choose one this week, it would be Boller - and it has nothing to do with Boller. It has to do with the Ravens defense.
Houston never scores on the road, and even though Baltimore has been a little leakier on defense than it has been in the past and even though Ray Lewis and Ed Reed might not play, the Ravens still bring the noise when they are home.
Baltimore only has allowed 64 points in five home contests in 2005. That includes giving up 24 points to the vaunted Indianapolis Colts and 21 points to the next coming of the Colts, the Cincinnati Bengals.
But what is more important is that no bad offense has come into Baltimore and done a lick against the Ravens this year. The New York Jets only could muster a field goal, and the same went for Cleveland. A Tommy Maddox-led Pittsburgh offense just managed 13 points against Samari Rolle, Terrell Suggs and Co.
So Thomas, go with Boller because he is home and playing a defense that is 10 times worse than the defense Carr is up against. Boller might not put together a Dan Fouts-esque outing, but I could see him getting 180 yards passing and a TD. Carr might throw for 10 yards and 10 interceptions.
Now if you will excuse me, I need to teach the New York Giants about snap counts and false starts.
For more information on Craig and his columns, visit www.publishedauthors.net/craigrondinone.
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